"If you do not live to serve, not serve to live" is
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Julio Carmona (edited with the collaboration of John Victor Alfaro):
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| With flowers the enemy will not change brutal: the rule weapons in the final battle. |
Saturday February 19, 2011. Posted by CEPRID
The enthusiasm that has swept through the world the Arab revolt in Tunisia and Egypt has to be qualified, a lot. In these two countries have achieved some successes, such as the withdrawal of its presidents and the beginning of a constituent or dissolution stage Parliament, but can not speak of the defeat of the ruling class in both countries since the military retains its grip on power and resources. In Tunisia and Egypt have seen a revolt of the middle class, increasingly impoverished and with no prospect of political and professional promotion, not the workers.
In the case of Egypt, a country of major geopolitical importance that Tunisia, one can speak, even an attempt at the middle class to take power to be deprived of "their rights" mainly as a result of two factors: electoral fraud that left without seats and not the Islamists, prohibited, but any other option formations electoral opposition and deteriorating economic conditions as a result not so much due to an economic system that is not disputed by the middle class but for their impoverishment as a class to the global rise in food prices.
in Egypt for years, attending a growing resentment of the middle class to maintain, with no prospect of change, a political and economic system centered on the military oligarchy since 1952 have been ruling and controlling in a hegemonic the country's resources. Clustered in or around the National Democratic Party, these sectors have prevented any kind of benefit-sharing a middle class increasingly powerful, but prospects do not already participate in the distribution of the pie but to find skilled employment and commensurate with their training.
In fact, the World Bank praised the Egyptian government a week before the start of the revolt and the country was considered the North African country with better macroeconomic performance in recent years, saying growth would be 5-7% for this 2011. Macroeconomics that did not reach the population and the middle class saw happen under their noses without getting any benefit for her. Not to mention the working class, forced to live with miserable salaries of less than two euros a day.
It Therefore, the revolt was only a matter of time and the example of Tunisia was the trigger. But a revolt is not far from revolt and revolution. Directed by the middle class, there has been no direction and when it appeared petty youth was chained to a computer without any experience in the fight against the regime. Faced with the spontaneity had to face a well-established and cohesive military institution that had long been limited to exercise of "referee" while events were favored leaving the police shrewdly as shock troops of the regime against the "legitimate aspirations" of the protesters . With this attitude, encouraged by certain media and middle class speech prey to his "peaceful protest", the Army has not been seen for what it is, the real enemy if you want a real transformation in Egypt, even to announce delivery power in six months and speed up the process of drafting a new constitution, which shall remain unquestioned current economic references.
has been, without doubt, a popular movement in which there has been an increasingly active participation of workers. But it was when they have taken a greater role and have radicalized their actions (radical, going to the root of the problems) as in Suez, Port Said, Asyut, El Arish, Dawwar and Kafr el-Mahalla al Kubra and other Egyptian cities, to making government buildings, burning vehicles and police stations (1), blocked roads and putting up a series of strikes throughout the country that included the threat of closure of the Suez Canal when the military has decided that enough was enough and took the final step of forcing Mubarak to leave the presidency despite his bravado to stay in it until September. The sit-in Tahrir Square could hold a series of strikes that might endanger the system collapse, no.
can speak without reserve, coup "white" by an Army that depends on water as the fish of U.S. military aid, and the U.S. announced the immediate resumption of aid of 1,300 million dollars to maintain its image. A revolt of the middle class is easier to control accepting some political and social reforms that do not question the system. A revolution, no. Since there was sufficient evidence of workers' power in the textile strikes of 2007 and 2008 (2), which not only pose an economic or labor, but political. Widespread strikes has become so jittery military calls for his dismissal and appeals to "damage to national security" that would cause threats have multiplied, more or less explicit intervention against strikers if they did not cease in their claims (3). At least in the militant town of Mahalla textile workers have decided to ignore the threats and continue with the protests, leading to the retention of management to labor and social improvements.
bloggers, with the help of the military
And this has clearly been the real objectives of the revolt of the middle class: one of the media icons, the famous blogger Wael Ghonim, arrested by the regime during the early days of the revolt and praised endlessly by the anti-Mubarak Egyptian bourgeoisie and the media Western in the heart, published in Twitter a call for an end to strikes (4) just know the statement read by Vice President Suleiman imposed by Mubarak, announcing the abandonment of hitherto president and the formation of the military junta lead the country "on an interim basis." A call that he and other bloggers have repeated a few days later when puffed on the crest of the wave as "leaders of the protest have been received by the military junta to" listen to their demands. "
As the uprising began, from the Internet have increased calls for demobilization with a suspicious phrase, "Mission accomplished" and some openly counterrevolutionary slogans, if there has been a revolution, "let's work together for a new Egypt, and more powerfully" (sic). And the demobilization has been fast without having accomplished anything more than the resignation of Mubarak. Certain that no longer serves as chairman, his portraits have hook and suspended parliament and constitution, but his legacy will remain intact for a long time: the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (CSFA) was quick to announce that it will maintain an interim the government itself imposed by Mubarak and Egypt will honor all international agreements sucritos (referring to the peace agreement with Israel and delivery of gas to this country at subsidized prices, the deployment of Egyptian troops in Sinai, with the acquiescence of Israel, should be interpreted in this sense and to "protect" the pipeline sabotaged and once in the early days of revolt). That is, the cornerstones of the system remain intact. The Egyptian version of "well-bound and bound" Franco. In addition, its first steps announced both a "respect for the police, asking her collaboration despite the high level of repression exercised, as the maintenance of economic and financial policy. But this, which is the backbone of the Mubarak regime has been conveniently hidden with the announcement of handing over power to civilians in six months, free elections, curiously close to the month of September is always raised Mubarak as the date for withdrawal, and the development of a new constitution that have mandated " wise "and which are officially missing, although unofficial matches.
Arguably, the initial phase of the revolt has achieved: Mubarak has disappeared in the foreground, there are more social rights and the military has promised reforms and elections. What we have achieved is great, but not enough. It will make concessions without touching the spinal cord of the system, especially in the field economic. If the middle class it complies with the military oligarchy will continue to control the lion's share of the resources of Egypt. Will then be the time of the revolution. But there will be opposite a police party but "democratic" nor a hated regime, but supported by a middle class and a bourgeoisie that fiercely defend their privileges. The revolt of the middle class has been shared by the working class, has taken the time to create a new Egyptian Trade Union Federation and committees in many factories. Unit has been in the least-Mubarak's resignation, social rights, but little else. The balance of power between classes will crucial from now. The class struggle, which has been glimpsed only the beginning, emerge with strength and see how many of those who now sympathize with the "revolution" Egypt are preparing to do the same with the hypothesis of a bourgeois government.
geopolitical consequences
With the measures announced by the CSFA Israel has breathed quietly for the first time in almost three weeks. U.S. and EU are very welcome and even applaud modosita Saudi output has been given to the crisis (its stock market had fallen an average of 6% since the beginning of the revolt). Although other arguments, the joy has also spread to other areas and organizations as Hezbollah, whom the Mubarak regime demonized and criminalized for trying to support the Palestinian resistance as Gaza suffered the Israeli attack in early 2009. One thing: during the first days of the rebellion was a mass escape of prisoners, although some have said he was encouraged by the regime itself to create chaos. Was so or not, the fact is that one of those who escaped was the Hezbollah militant network to train Gazans support for Israeli aggression and had been sentenced for life ", who has been able to return to Lebanon (5).
is certainly in the geopolitical aspect where the revolt of the Egyptian middle class will have more impact in the medium and long term. The first is that, despite the relief felt by the decision of the CSFA to maintain the peace agreement, time is no longer in favor of Israel. If until now his main ally was the weakness of Arab regimes and the smashing of their population, as of now it is going to be more difficult once it has been a transition from a certain political liberalization. The mere fact that there may be Islamists in parliament makes it harder for systematic policy of subservience to the US-Israeli designs and, consequently, decreases the ability of the Zionist enforcement policy. U.S. can not even shake again the bogey of Sunni-Shiite conflict, as it has done in its campaign against Iran. Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, Sunni, best, largest and most disciplined political group have some historical ties with Iran dating back to 1970. One of the ideologues of the Iranian Islamic revolution, Ali Shariati, quoted often thought one of the chief ideologues of the Muslim Brotherhood, Syed Qutb. And when a command of this organization militants killed in 1981 when Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat, for signing the peace agreement with Israel the families of most of the members of that command were granted asylum in Iran. Furthermore, given the increased repression of Egyptian regime against HM from that year, many of its top leaders made landfall in Iran. Surprisingly, the U.S. and Israel are left to Al Qaeda, and Saudi Arabia, for encouraging this confrontation between religions. Nor should one forget that before this revolt of the middle class, Israel had already lost its traditional ally Turkey as a result of the slaughter of the flotilla, Syria has been regaining political power at regional level (6) and Iran increases its influence throughout Middle East. There's a new balance of power in the Middle East and the role of the U.S. and Israel is weakened with each passing day. With the exception of Libya, the countries ruled by riots shake U.S. allies and turn a blind eye to Israel. We are witnessing a new correlation of forces in which organizations have gained new strength dose of morale and confidence. The fact unlikely, that the secretary general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, publicly threatened Israel with "free" Galilee if a new war against Lebanon (7) clearly shows the weakness of the positions of the Zionists and their allies .
Egypt will maintain its capitalist economic line, but will not be a regional power because, among other things, it will cost a long time to settle the new government both internally and externally, and one of its main touchstone is the attitude towards Gaza and Hamas, as well as to other Arab resistance forces such as Hezbollah. And in any case, if there was a remote possibility of American-Israeli attack against Iran, has vanished like a soap bubble. An attack in this situation so fragile socio-political order would not of an Egyptian "moderate", but a whole whole region as we know it now. Unintentionally, of course, this has been the great contribution of Mubarak with his stubbornness in staying in power until the last minute.
Notes:
(1) Hossam el-Hamalawy, February 9, 2011. The Ministry of Interior speaking of 99 Egyptian police attacked and "dozens" of police vehicles on fire, but provided no exact figure.
(2) Joel Beinin and Hossam el-Hamalawy: "The Egyptian labor sector facing the new economic order" http://www.nodo50.org/ceprid/spip.php?article48
(3) Prensa Latina February 14, 2011.
(4) www.arabawy.org, February 11, 2011.
(5) The Daily Star, February 8, 2011.
(6) Alberto Cruz, "Syria achieved a new balance of forces in the Middle East" http://www.nodo50.org/ceprid/spip.php?article852
(7) As-Safir, 17 February 2011.
CEPRID
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